Scenario generation and scenario quality using the cone of plausibility

The intelligence analysis domain is a critical area for futures work. Indeed, analysts’ judgments of security threats are based on considerations how may unfold, and as such play vital role in informing policy- decision-making. In this domain, typically considered using qualitative scenario generation techniques the cone plausibility (CoP). We empirically examined quality scenarios generated technique five criteria: completeness, context (otherwise known ‘relevance/pertinence’), plausibility, coherence, order effects (i.e., ‘transparency’). Participants were trained to use CoP then asked generate that might follow within six months Turkish government banning Syrian refugees from entering country. On average, participants three scenarios, these could be characterized baseline, best case, worst case. All significantly more likely high ‘coherence’ criterion compared other criteria. Scenario was independent type. However, first criteria those afterwards. discuss implications findings well studies. • Few purporting facilitate good support work have been subjected systemic inquiry. number, type Cone Plausibility technique. Scenarios highly coherent than complete, plausible, relevant/pertinent, or transparent. There no significant differences best-case, worst-case sceanarios. relevant/pertinent transparent practical techniques.